Thank you - useful insights. Hias' comments about heat levels due to software decoding of h264 media sealed the deal. All my content is in that format, and I hate the sound of fans, so I think it makes sense to go for a RPi4 - they're available now off the shelf, power/heat is going to be less, it's handily cheaper and it's still going to be a good step up from the RPi3.
I can always move up to a RPi5 when they bring out the 2GB version, and repurpose the RPi4 at that stage.